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January 18, 2025

In this episode, Marko Gelo and Andrew Way (of Oakwyn Realty) discuss Vancouver Real Estate and other surrounding factors that are influencing it. Here’s a summary of the discussion:

December 2024 Vancouver Market Overview:

Sales: 1,765 sales, a 31.2% increase from December 2023, but 14.9% below the 10-year seasonal average
Listings: 1,676 detached, attached, and apartment properties listed, a 26.3% increase from December 2023, and 1.1% below the 10-year seasonal average
Sales-to-Active Listings Ratio:
- Overall: 16.8%
- Detached: 12.1%
- Attached: 23.6%
- Condos: 18.7%
- Insight: No property type saw ratios below 12% (downward pressure) or sustained above 20% (upward pressure)

Property Type Insights:

Detached Homes:
- Sales: 494 (31.4% increase YoY)
- Benchmark Price: $1,997,000 (2% YoY increase, flat from November 2024)
Condos:
- Sales: 891 (23.9% increase YoY)
- Benchmark Price: $749,900 (0.1% YoY decrease, 0.4% decrease from November 2024)
Townhomes:
- Sales: 371 (55.9% increase YoY)
- Benchmark Price: $1,114,600 (3.4% YoY increase, 0.3% decrease from November 2024)

Market Conditions:

Balanced Market:
- Sales ratios mostly between 12%-20%, indicating balance
- Property-specific variations exist, e.g., detached homes veering towards a buyer’s market, townhomes towards a seller’s market
Buyer Behavior:
- High interest in renovated, move-in-ready properties priced competitively
- Properties with strong appeal sold quickly in December

Mortgage and Interest Rates:

Trends: Fixed rates have stabilized; variable rates narrowing the spread with fixed rates
Forecasts:
- Prime rate expected to drop by 100 basis points to 4.45% in 2025
- Fixed rates predicted to stay in the low-to-mid 4% range
- Mixed recommendations for fixed vs. variable mortgages, with hybrid options gaining interest

Predictions for 2025:

Price Growth: Expected increases:
- Detached homes: 3-4%
- Townhomes: ~5%
- Condos: 2-3%
Spring Market: Activity predicted to outpace 2024, with increased inventory and buyer demand driving modest price growth

Key Influences:

External Factors: Political changes, mortgage rules (e.g., 30-year amortizations), and macroeconomic conditions (interest rates, employment trends)
Regional Strength: Western Canada benefits from natural resource exports and favorable economic conditions

Challenges:

Affordability: Persistent issue in Vancouver, though price stability amidst high rates shows market resilience
Employment: Potential factor impacting market momentum; varied impacts across sectors

Final Notes:

Optimism for 2025: Buyers appear more confident with rates dropping, and the market is expected to see modest but steady growth
Upcoming Factors: Continued monitoring of interest rates, spring market activity, and policy impacts

For a deeper dive into their discussion, tune into the episode in the link above!