Vancouver Condo Market 2025: Is Now the Time to Buy?

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Oct 26, 2025

Vancouver’s condo market is offering something it rarely does: a temporary pause in price pressure, paired with easing interest rates and record-high inventory. For condo buyers, this combination marks one of the most favourable entry points in over a decade.

In September 2025, the benchmark price for a Vancouver condo fell 6.21 percent month-over-month to $728,800, while the number of active listings climbed to the highest level in years. Slower sales and longer days on market have reduced competition, allowing buyers to negotiate terms that were nearly impossible in the heated markets of the past.

In short, today’s market represents a rare intersection of soft pricing, abundant supply, and still-reasonable borrowing costs. For buyers able to act decisively, this period could prove to be when they entered the market while conditions were still favourable, whether the bottom has already formed or is gradually approaching.

If you’re searching for a signal to take action, here are some rational points to consider:

1) Vancouver Condos Are Still (technically) in a Balanced Market

Greater Vancouver’s Sales-to-Active Listings Ratio (SALR) for September 2025 sits at 11.3% overall and ~13.3% for condos. This technically means condos are still in a balanced market (a seller’s market is above 20%, a buyer’s market is below 12%, and a balanced market falls between 12% and 20%).

Currently, there are 7,164 active condo listings—an abundance of supply that gives buyers a level of choice and negotiating leverage unseen in years.

While national headlines often suggest a severe downturn, the reality in Vancouver is more balanced. The market isn’t collapsing—it’s recalibrating. The city is experiencing a brief period where listings are elevated, sellers are motivated, and qualified buyers have the upper hand.

Meanwhile, housing completions dropped 39.5% year-over-year in Q3 2025 (CMHC), signalling that the surge in new condo supply is already beginning to taper off. This points to a temporary window rather than a prolonged trend. Once absorption picks up and new construction slows, today’s oversupply will likely correct itself—potentially closing this buyer’s window faster than many anticipate.

Why conditions currently favour buyers:

Declining Prices: Benchmark condo price fell 6.21% month-over-month to $728,800.
Increased Inventory: Highest condo supply in more than a decade gives buyers exceptional leverage.
Slowing Sales: Fewer transactions and longer listing durations are reducing bidding pressure.
Reasonable Rates: Interest rates are appealing and may decline slightly further, but aren’t guaranteed to stay low indefinitely.

For prospective buyers, that last point is crucial. Rates are in a declining cycle, but not a stable one. If inflation flares up or sentiment shifts, rate cuts could stall—or even reverse. Acting now, while pricing and financing conditions align, may offer a more reliable path than waiting for a “perfect” moment that never materializes.

2) Vancouver ≠ Toronto — and Why That Matters

National headlines tend to group Vancouver and Toronto together, but the reality is very different. While both markets are technically in a buyer’s phase, Vancouver’s cycle is shallower, more stable, and likely shorter-lived than Toronto’s.

In the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), condo inventory has surged to record levels, and absorption rates remain sluggish. Developers are contending with months of unsold supply, heavier carrying costs, and broader economic strain from manufacturing slowdowns and tariff exposure. Toronto’s correction runs deep—and could take years to normalize.

Vancouver, on the other hand, is showing early signs of balance. Yes, listings are elevated and sales volumes have softened, but the underlying conditions differ: construction completions are already falling, population growth remains stable, and long-term supply constraints persist.

This means Vancouver’s buyer-friendly environment may fade sooner than Toronto’s. For first-time buyers, this is a critical distinction: Vancouver’s weakness is cyclical, not structural. The temporary oversupply, driven by delayed completions and rate-sensitive demand, will likely give way to renewed upward pressure once the economy improves and borrowing costs stabilize.

Put simply, Vancouver’s window of opportunity is smaller—but cleaner. Buyers who act now are entering a market that’s temporarily soft but fundamentally resilient. Those waiting for deeper price drops risk being caught on the wrong side of the cycle once rates settle and demand returns

3) Why National Averages Can Mislead

One of the biggest mistakes buyers make is assuming that “Canada’s housing market” moves as one. It doesn’t. Housing markets are regional; financing is national.

When national headlines talk about price drops or slowdowns, they’re often shaped by Ontario’s outsized influence. That’s why relying on national averages can be misleading.

The Greater Vancouver condo market is experiencing a correction, not a collapse. Prices have adjusted, listings are up, and sellers are more flexible—but the core demand drivers of immigration, limited land supply, and a stable economy continue to underpin long-term resilience.

In short, what looks like a nationwide slowdown is actually a regional rebalancing. While Ontario wrestles with structural challenges (an oversupply of investor-owned condos, a backlog of pre-sale completions, office-sector weakness, and slower population retention — factors that will take years, not quarters, to resolve), Vancouver’s moderation is cyclical—driven by temporary supply peaks and interest-rate transitions. While Ontario battles to maintain its auto sector, BC and Alberta are ramping up their natural resources sector…two different economies, likely heading in opposite directions.

If you only follow the national headlines, you’ll miss what’s happening on the ground in Vancouver: potentially, a limited-term window of opportunity within a fundamentally strong market.

4) Financing Is National — Ontario’s Slowdown Benefits Buyers in Stronger-Performing Provinces

While real estate markets are local, financing conditions are national. The Bank of Canada’s policy rate applies coast to coast, meaning Ontario’s economic strain—especially its sluggish condo sector—can suppress borrowing costs in stronger markets like B.C. and Alberta.

Today’s interest rates range from 3.99% to 4.44%, well below long-term historical averages (excluding the COVID-era lows). More rate cuts could follow into 2026, but buyers should remain cautious: inflation remains sticky, and monetary policy can plateau or even reverse if price pressures resurface.

That’s the real risk of trying to time the market—the opportunity can disappear as fast as it arrives. Acting in a deflated but fundamentally sound market often proves to be the winning move. Today’s conditions—lower rates, high inventory, and cooling prices—offer a balance that may not align again once demand rebounds and supply tightens.

5) Stacking Policy Incentives with Today’s Market Cycle

In my earlier article, “The 5 Strategic Entry Points for First-Time Buyers in Vancouver,” I outlined a set of programs designed to make homeownership more attainable — including the Property Transfer Tax (PTT) exemptions, the new $1.5 million insured-mortgage limit, the 30-year amortization, the Newly Built Home exemption, and the First Home Savings Account (FHSA).

Each of these initiatives is powerful on its own, but combined with today’s market — abundant listings, motivated sellers, and favourable financing — their impact is amplified. Vancouver’s condo market currently sits at a rare intersection where public policy and market timing align.

Together, these programs don’t just reduce costs — they expand opportunity. Layered onto a temporarily soft market, they create one of the most accessible buying environments Vancouver has seen in over a decade.

As with interest rates and pricing, timing matters. The incentives will remain, but the conditions that make them most effective—high supply and flexible sellers—will not. Acting while these forces align could allow first-time buyers to secure terms that may be difficult to replicate once the next market cycle begins.

Summary

Vancouver’s condo market stands at a unique crossroads — prices have softened, inventory is abundant, and borrowing costs remain historically reasonable. Whether the market has already bottomed or will stabilize in the months ahead, these buyer-friendly conditions won’t last forever. Inflation risks and shifting monetary policy could quickly change the rate environment, tightening affordability just as demand rebounds. For first-time or strategic buyers, this moment offers an opportunity to act while conditions still align in their favour. In a city as resilient as Vancouver, timing that intersection could make all the difference.

Are you a First-Time Homebuyer and wondering if now is the right time for you? Call, text, or email Marko right now — find out exactly how much mortgage you qualify for.