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Jan 4, 2026

As we progress into 2026, Canada’s housing markets continue to evolve — and not all regions are moving in the same direction. Local market conditions, affordability, and interest rates are playing a larger role than ever in shaping where opportunities exist for both buyers and sellers.

As a mortgage broker licensed in British Columbia and Alberta, I work with clients from across the country, many of whom are relocating to Alberta or British Columbia. In this update, I’ll share my perspective on where the markets in Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton may be headed, along with my outlook on interest rates and mortgage conditions for 2026.

Vancouver Real Estate Outlook (2026)

MARKET DIRECTION: buyer/balanced market (depending on property type and location)

Vancouver remains one of Canada’s most complex and price-sensitive housing markets and, unsurprisingly, continues to struggle with affordability. That reality isn’t new — Vancouver has long been the country’s most expensive market — but what is changing is where opportunity is beginning to surface. At the moment, it’s difficult to argue that much of the region isn’t operating in buyer-friendly territory.

Here’s my admittedly unscientific take: detached homes are likely to feel the most pressure in 2026, followed by townhomes, which not long ago were the most sought-after property type. Condominiums, somewhat ironically, may be the first segment to lead a recovery. And to be clear, I’m referring to resale condos, not new construction.

Across Greater Vancouver, there are currently many well-priced resale condos and a healthy amount of inventory to choose from. New construction condos, on the other hand, remain a far more opaque segment of the market. Roughly 12,000 units are still listed at 2021–2023 pricing, with additional projects nearing completion. Builders are undoubtedly getting creative — offering back-end incentives, rebates, and concessions — as they work through this excess supply without resetting pricing across entire developments. Expect continued quiet discounting as this sector works toward a more balanced footing.

What’s also notable is the growing presence of patient buyers — particularly first-time buyers — who have spent years sitting on the sidelines. That group is clearly beginning to mobilize. Based on the rising volume of mortgage pre-approvals coming through my lending partners, it’s evident that many first-time buyers are preparing to act. They’re approaching this market from a unique position: they don’t need to sell in order to buy.

For buyers who can look past the negative, seller-centric headlines and focus on fundamentals, this may represent a rare window of opportunity. I believe we are at, near, or close enough to the bottom to justify action for many buyers. Call me optimistic, but I would rather encourage buyers to participate early than attempt to perfectly time a turn — especially in a market as unforgiving as Vancouver.

In my view, 2026 is shaping up to be a transition year for Vancouver — one where conditions gradually shift from a buyer-leaning environment toward a more balanced market.

2026 VANCOUVER REAL ESTATE FORECAST: Expect sales prices to soften modestly, in the range of 3-10%, with a smaller possibility of flat or even slightly positive growth if pent-up demand begins to materialize. 2026 should provide long-awaited insight into the depth and durability of first-time buyer demand, particularly as affordability improves. This may prove to be a defining year for first-time buyers — one that finally moves many of them onto the first rung of the Vancouver real estate ladder.

Calgary &Edmonton Real Estate Outlook (2026)

MARKET DIRECTION: Stable to modest growth

I’ll address Edmonton alongside Calgary, as both markets share many of the same underlying fundamentals. While much of the country is experiencing slower population growth — particularly in higher-cost markets such as Vancouver and Toronto — Alberta continues to attract strong interprovincial migration, bucking the national trend.

For many buyers from British Columbia and Ontario, Alberta has increasingly become a practical alternative when affordability constraints at home begin to limit long-term options. A growing number of first-time buyers in Vancouver are reaching a point where their purchasing power is meaningfully greater in Calgary or Edmonton. The decision many are weighing is a significant one: purchasing a condo in Vancouver at a high price point, or relocating to Calgary or Edmonton where the same budget can support a detached home (and for some, earlier family formation).

As difficult as that choice can be, interprovincial migration data suggests that many households are opting for affordability and space, contributing to continued demand in Alberta’s major cities. Supported by renewed momentum in the natural resource sector and broader economic stability, both Calgary and Edmonton appear positioned for steady market conditions in the period ahead. And much like Vancouver, first-time buyers are expected to remain a key driver of activity in these markets.

Below are a few data points that highlight the growing disparity between Toronto and Vancouver versus Calgary and Edmonton.

2026 CALGARY REAL ESTATE FORECAST: Expect modest, steady price growth throughout 2026, with overall sales prices rising by approximately -3% to 1.5%. Market activity is likely to be led by the condo segment, as affordability continues to draw first-time buyers and interprovincial migrants. While new home construction is expected to ease, it should remain above historical averages, helping to support supply without materially disrupting price stability.

2026 EDMONTON REAL ESTATE FORECAST: Edmonton is expected to see slightly stronger momentum in 2026, with sales prices increasing by approximately 0% to 2%. Similar to Calgary, the condo market is likely to lead activity, supported by affordability, population growth, and first-time buyer demand. Overall, Edmonton’s market appears well-positioned for steady, balanced growth rather than volatility.

Economic & Mortgage Rate Outlook

MORTGAGE RATES:

According to various national forecasts, don’t expect interest rates to move meaningfully in either direction in 2026. For most of the year, rate activity is likely to be best described as marginal, with fluctuations occurring within a relatively narrow range rather than through sharp swings.

For existing homeowners, this environment is likely to drive increased refinancing activity, rather than simple renewals. Refinances allow borrowers to make material changes to their mortgage structure — such as increasing principal to consolidate non-mortgage debt or extending amortization to help manage payment shock and improve cash flow.

We’re also seeing renewed interest in deeply discounted variable-rate mortgages. With the spread between fixed and variable rates having widened again, variable options are once more influencing both buyers and existing homeowners. Fixed rates are expected to move back and forth within the low-to-high 4% range, while variable rates could dip as low as 3.5%. Looking beyond 2026, a gradual upward trend in both fixed and variable rates appears more likely than a return to emergency-level lows.

In an environment where lenders are competing for market share, many of the best opportunities are found behind the scenes – through limited-time promotions, lender-sprecific incentives, and one-off exceptions that aren’t always publicly advertised. If you’re considering buying, selling, renewing, or refinancing in the year ahead, don’t hesitate to reach back – I am available to assist!

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